2019 Oscar Predictions – September 18, 2018

IT’S OSCAR SEASON!!  We finally made it!  We made it through the garbage of the winter, the mediocrity of the spring, and the chaos of summer, to get to my favorite time of the year.  2018 has been a solid year so far, but with the movies that are coming out this fall, 2019 is looking a whole lot better.  This year’s Oscar race looks like a battle of former winners and nominees, including a potential 2016 rematch for Best Picture and Director.  Here are my first 2019 Oscar predictions.

 

 

NOTE – I only focused on the major categories and skipped all the bottom line/technical ones.

 

 

 

BEST PICTURE

1 – A STAR IS BORN

2 – FIRST MAN 

3 – ROMA

4 – IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK

5 – GREEN BOOK

6 – BLACKkKLANSMAN

7 – THE FAVOURITE 

8 – WIDOWS

9 – BOY ERASED

10 – BLACK PANTHER

 

ANALYSIS – With Telluride, Venice, and Toronto all completed, we’ve started to get a clearer picture of our frontrunners within the next few weeks.  Early word is Damien Chazelle has a winner with First Man, so it’s leading the pack.  But Bradley Cooper’s directorial debut, A Star is Born, which is getting raves and could sweep, and Alfonso Cuaron’s Roma, which got a standing ovation after it’s premiere.  The rest of the list is full of great filmmakers, both veterans, like Spike Lee and Steve McQueen, and a younger bunch, like Barry Jenkins and Yorgos Lanthimos.  And could Black Panther make history as the first comic book movie nominated for Best Picture?  It’s hard to ignore a juggernaut.

 

 

 

BEST DIRECTOR

1 – ALFONSO CUARON – ROMA

2 – BRADLEY COOPER – A STAR IS BORN

3 – DAMIEN CHAZELLE – FIRST MAN

4 – BARRY JENKINS – IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK 

5 – SPIKE LEE – BLACKkKLANSMAN 

 

ANALYSIS – Chazelle vs Jenkins Part II?  It’s a very strong possibility.  Maybe we’ll see the reverse this year.  Dozens of directors are looking to spoil the rematch, including past winners and nominees such as Alfonso Cuaron, Steve McQueen, Adam McKay.  Could Cooper be a real threat?  The Academy loves actors who direct (see Robert Redford, Kevin Costner, and Clint Eastwood), and if the movie is as good as the hype is saying, Cooper could run away with everything.

 

 

BEST ACTOR

1 – BRADLEY COOPER – A STAR IS BORN

2 – ROBERT REDFORD – THE OLD MAN AND THE GUN 

3 – RYAN GOSLING – FIRST MAN

4 – STEVE CARELL – BEAUTIFUL BOY

5 – CHRISTIAN BALE – BACKSEAT 

 

ANALYSIS – Speaking of Bradley Cooper, if they aren’t going to award him for directing, acting is his best shot.  This being is fourth nomination in six years shows the Academy likes him and wants to get him a win.  He’s the frontrunner for sure.  His biggest competition is Robert Redford, in his last on-screen performance.  Redford has never won an acting Oscar (a true shame), so this could be a great send off.  You can never count out Christian Bale, Ryan Gosling, Viggo Mortensen, Steve Carell, Hugh Jackman, and many, many more.  Best Actor is looking stacked this year.

 

 

BEST ACTRESS

1 – GLENN CLOSE – THE WIFE

2 – LADY GAGA – A STAR IS BORN

3 – NICOLE KIDMAN – DESTROYER 

4 – SAOIRSE RONAN – MARY QUEEN OF SCOTTS 

5 – TONI COLLETTE – HEREDITARY 

 

ANALYSIS – Is it Glen Closes’s time?  The long overdue actress may finally get her golden statue.  It’s going to be a tough fight, though, especially with former nominees Viola Davis, Saoirse Ronan (who is bound to win soon), Toni Collette, Julia Roberts, Emily Blunt, Nicole Kidman, and breakout Lady Gaga all fighting for spots.

 

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1 – SAM ELLIOT – A STAR IS BORN

2 – TIMOTHEE CHALAMET – BEAUTIFUL BOY

3 – DANIEL KALUUYA – WIDOWS

4 – ADAM DRIVER – BLACKkKLANSMAN 

5 – MAHERSHALA ALI – GREEN BOOK

 

ANALYSIS – Nothing would make me happier than seeing Sam Elliot and his iconic mustache and Southern drawl accept an Oscar.  The legendary actor is looking for his first(!) nomination and it could end but as the winner if A Star is Born sweeps.  Timothee Chalamet and Daniel Kaluuya look to keep their streak going after being nominated last year.  Russell Crowe, JK Simmons, Sam Rockwell, and Mahershala Ali are all vying for Oscar number two.  And will somebody PLEASE nominate Adam Driver already!  The man has been one of the best actors working in Hollywood for years now and puts in career-best work in BlackKklansman.  This could be the most interesting category of the year.

 

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1 – AMY ADAMS – BACKSEAT 

2 – REGINA KING – IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK 

3 – MARGOT ROBBIE – MARY QUEEN OF SCOTS 

4 – CLAIRE FOY – FIRST MAN 

5 – MICHELLE YEOH – CRAZY RICH ASIANS

 

ANALYSIS – The fact that Amy Adams doesn’t have an Oscar is a travesty.  Given the meaty role of Lynn Cheney, this could be the one that seals it.  I would love to see Regina King and Michelle Yeoh nominated, both of whom were snubbed years ago (King for Jerry Maguire, Yeoh for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon).  Claire Foy will get in if First Man and is a threat to win if the film is a smash.  And then we have past nominees and winners like Nicole Kidman, Vera Farmiga, Margot Robbie, Rachel Weisz, Amy Ryan, and Laura Dern in the mix

 

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1 – ROMA

2 – THE FAVOURITE 

3 – GREEN BOOK

4 – FIRST REFORMED

5 – EIGHTH GRADE

 

ANALYSIS – If they aren’t going to give Roma Picture or Director, this is where it will win.  This category is relatively weak this year, so Roma could really run away with it.

 

 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1 – IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK

2 – FIRST MAN

3 – BLACKkKLANSMAN

4 – A STAR IS BORN 

5 – BEAUTIFUL BOY

 

ANALYSIS – Unlike Original Screenplay, Adapted is absolutely loaded with past winners and nominees.  This could be an opportunity for the Academy to award a film that isn’t going to win Best Picture, or it could get caught in the sweep of a First Man or A Star is Born.

 

 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1 – INCREDIBLES 2 

2 – ISLE OF DOGS

3 – SPIDER-MAN: INTO THE SPIDER-VERSE

4 – EARLY MAN

5 – SMALLFOOT

 

ANALYSIS – Incredibles 2 was a monster at the box office and is a critical success.  It is one of Pixar’s very best films and one of the best films of the year.  It should runaway with the award.

 

 

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